| Chapter 1 Risk 1 A Nation of Stock Market Junkies 4 Calm Words for Wild Times 7 Chapter 2 Greed 13 The Hardest Decision 23 The Iron Man 24 Atlas Doesn't Shrug 27 The Warrior Philosopher 28 Like Monkeys at the Zoo 30 A Context 32 The Danger of Warren Buffett 34 The Value of Errors 35 Chapter 3 Fear 37 The Theory of Contrary Opinion 42 Exile on Wall Street 44 The Media Is the Message 47 Media Misreads Google 49 Paulson's Gamble 50 Buffett's Goldman Trade 53 Fading the News 53 Chapter 4 The Anatomy of Information 55 The Doors of Perception 58 Anatomy of Information 60 The Future Is Now 63 Show Business 66 Words Are Weapons 68 Trust, but Verify 70 Chapter 5 Chaos 81 Money Never Sleeps 82 Perversities 82 The Black Swan's Calling Card 85 Map of the Market 86 Don't Get Skewed 89 Apathy and Fear Are Your Friend 90 Fear Not Black Swans 91 Is MPT MIA or KIA? 92 800 Years of Crisis 97 Fear Gray Swans 98 Chapter 6 Diogenes' Lantern 103 Performance Is Relative 106 Death by a Thousand Fees 107 Stockbroker Pay 111 Hidden Fees 116 Beware of New Products 116 An Uncomfortable Conversation 117 A Funny Aside 118 Suitability Requirement 119 Fiduciary Standard 120 Shakespeare's Rule 121 Appeals to Common Sense 121 Trust but Verify 122 Active versus Passive Fund Management 125 Chapter 7 Cycles 127 The Year in Stocks 128 Mysterious Repetitions 136 Flash Mobs 137 History's Hiccups 138 The Economy in Slow Motion 139 The Guts of ISM 141 Numerical Nuances 142 Says Who? Says Goldman Sachs 142 Action 148 Chapter 8 Behavior 151 One Brain: Two Minds 152 Maps and Models 154 This Is Your Brain Visualizing Money 156 Compulsive Gambler 158 B. F. Skinner Goes to Wall Street 158 The Casino Culture 160 Your Own Private Stock Market 162 Often Wrong; Never in Doubt 163 Illusion of Memory 164 Safe Havens in the Age of Madoff 165 Illusions 167 Victor 169 An Antidote for Overconfidence 170 Go Slow to Go Fast 172 Think Week 173 Halos and Angels 173 Big Brother Is Studying You 175 Big Bank Is Watching You 177 Ancient Lessons 178 Chapter 9 Watchman, What of the Night? 181 The Next Crash 183 Misperceptions and Illusions 184 Revolving Doors 185 Investor Laureate 186 A Fox in the Henhouse 187 The Tremendous Task 188 Sane Money, Not Mad Money 189 Repetition and Velocity 191 More Education 192 Plain Speaking 192 The Cause of Failure 193 Virtue 194 Ladders 195 A Systematic Change 196 Flash Crash 198 Soft Spots 199 Washington 201 A Global Problem 202 Present at the Creation 204 The Illusion of Regulation 205 Power 208 The Balance of Power 208 Acknowledgments 211 Notes 215 About the Author 225 Index 227 I must create a system, or be enslaved by another man's. -William Blake |
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