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黑天鹅:百年一遇的冲击he Black Swan:The Impact of the Highly Imprbable

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作者：Nassim Nicholas Taleb 著

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出版时间：2007-04

I S B N：140006351

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黑天鹅:百年一遇的冲击he Black Swan:The Impact of the Highly Imprbable

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172.80元

黑天鹅:百年一遇的冲击he Black Swan:The Impact of the Highly Imprbable

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价格
172.80元

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内容简介

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.
　　Why do we not acknowledge the phenomeno

作者简介

PART ONE  Umberto Eco's antilibrary, or how we seek validation
  Chapter 1  The apprenticeship of an empirical skeptic
  Chapter 2  Yevgenia's black swan
  Chapter 3  The speculator and the prostitute
  Chapter 4  One thousand and one days, or how not to be a sucker
  Chapter 5  Confirmation shmonfirmation!
  Chapter 6  The narrative fallacy
  Chapter 7  Living in the antechamber of hope
  Chapter 8  Glacomo Casanova's unfailing luck : the problem of silent evidence
  Chapter 9  The ludic fallacy, or the uncertainty of the nerd
PART TWO  We just can't predict
  Chapter 10  The scandal of prediction
  Chapter 11  How to look for bird poop
  Chapter 12  Epistemocracy, a dream
  Chapter 13  Appelles the painter, or what do you do if you cannot predict?
PART THREE  Those gray swans of Extremistan
  Chapter 14  From Mediocristan to Extremistan, and back
  Chapter 15  The bell curve, that great intellectual fraud
  Chapter 16  The aesthet