| Part I Philosophical Background 2. Cognition-Philosophical Basis of Forecast 3.1 Cognition and Knowledge 3.2 Development andEvolution 3.3 Rationale and Phenomenon, Rationalism and Phenomenalism 3.4 Part and Entirety, Fractions and Whole 3.5 NormaIState and AbnormaIState 3.7 Continuity and Discontinuity Part II Theory System 1.1 Conservation of Abstract System 1.3 AlgebraicSystem 1.6 BinaryOperations 1.7 Multiple Relations 1.8 Commensurability 2.1 Constitution of Physical System 2.2 Conservation of Physical System 2.4 How Are Days Counted 2.5 Physical Aspect of Natural Disasters 3.1 Information and Informative System 3.2 Informative Deduction, Exchange, and Feedback 3.3 Classification of Informative System 3.4 Symmetry and Conservation in Informative System 4.Distribution and Hypothetic Test for Distribution 4.1 Distribution 4.2 Distribution Function and Numerical Feature 4.3 Multivariate Composition of Numerical Distribution 4.4 Hypothetic Distribution and Hypothetic Test 4.5 Selection of Confidence Level 5. Forecast and Forecasting Methods 5.1 Common Concept of Forecast 5.2 Models and Process of Forecast 5.3 Statistic Forecast 5.4 Fitting 5.5 Informative Forecast Part Ⅲ Practice of Forecast 1.Cases of Forecast 1.1 Forecast of Meteorological Disasters 1.2 Forecast of China's Earthquake 1.3 Forecast of Earthquakes in Foreign Countries 2.Effect Analysis for Forecast of Natural Disasters 2.1 Methods of Estimation 2.2 Analysis of Effectiveness Part IV Forecast and Operations Research 1.General Concept of Operations Research 2.Junction of Forecast Theory with Operations Research and Some Cases 2.1 Super Long-Range Forecast for Earthquake in Xinjiang Kurle Area,and Suggestions for Anti-Earthquake Measures in Base Construction 2.2 Forecasting and Programming of National Situations Part V Forecast and Assessment 1.Forecast and Assessment 2. Forecast of World Oil and Natural Gas Production 3. About Natural Gas 3.1 New Knowledge about Natural Gas 3.2 Features of Gas Fields Distribution 4. Estimation for the Trend of Natural Gas Development Epilogue My Final Words 1.About the Yellow Book 2.Application of Ancient Science-Reasoning of Luo Shu 3.Theoretical Foundation of Forecast 4.About Succession and Development of Forecasting Theory |
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