| 不愧为全面、有深度、新颖的著作。 ——迪亚娜·沃恩（Diane Vaughan），波士顿大学 优于经典、高于原创的著作。 ——理查德·贝茨（Richard K.Betts），哥伦比亚大学 修订版加强了在理论和历史方面的内容，显求了卓越成效！ ——斯科特·萨根（Scott Sagan），斯坦福大学 |
| 格雷厄姆·阿利森（Graham T.Allison），哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院院长、教授，曾在克林顿政府时期任助理国防部长。 .. << 查看详细 |
| preface introduction 1 model i: the rational actor a rigorous model of action a rational actor paradigm the classical model illustrated classical realism. neorealism (structural realism). international institutionalism. liberalism. strategy, war, and rational choice. variants and uses of the classical model 2 the cuban missile crisis: a first cut why did the soviet union decide to place offensive missiles in cuba? hypothesis 1: cuban defense. hypothesis 2: cold war politics. hypothesis 3: missile power. hypothesis 4: berlin--win, trade, or trap. why did the united states respond to the missile deployment with a blockade? alternative i: do nothing. alternative 2: diplomatic pressures. alternative 3: a secret approach to castro. . alternative 4: invasion. alternative 5: air strike. alternative 6: blockade. why did the soviet union withdraw the missiles? 3 model ii: organizational behavior organizational logic and efficiency organizational logic and organizational culture interactive complexity nasa: hero and goat organizational behavior paradigm 4 the cuban missile crisis: a second cut deployment of soviet missiles in cuba the soviet build-up in detail. organizational implementation. imposition of a u.s. blockade of cuba organizational intelligence. organizational options. organizational implementation. the withdrawal of soviet missiles from cuba 5 model iii: governmental politics the governmental politics model illustrated __ 1. separated institutions sharing power. 2. the power to persuade. 3. bargaining according to the processes. 4. power equals impact on outcome. 5. intranational and international relations. group processes and their effects on choices and action 1. better decisions. 2. the "agency" problem: principals, agents, and players. 3. participants: who plays? 4. decision rules. 5. framing issues and setting agendas. 6. groupthink. 7. complexity of ]oint action. a governmental politics paradigm 6 the cuban missile crisis: a third cut the imposition of a blockade by the united states the politics of discovery. the politics of choice. soviet withdrawal of the missiles from cuba soviets kill an american u-2 pilot. the president and the chairman. the "deal": resolving the turkish problem. the "deal": resolving the cuban problem. 7 conclusion summing up: differences in interpretation summing up: different answers or different questions? where do we go from here? index |
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