| 作者简介：NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB, part literary essayist, part empiricist, part no-nonsense trader, has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, uncertainty, probability, and knowledge. Taleb was born into a Greek-Orthodox family in Lebanon. He worked as a derivatives trader on his own and with Wall Street firms and as a floor trader in the Chicago pits before opting for more con- templative, and what he calls "nontransactional," pursuits. He has an M.B.A. from the Wharton School and a Ph.D. from the University of Paris. While trading, he taught the application of probability the-ory to risk management for seven years (part-time) at the Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences of New York University. He is currently taking a break from active life by serving as the Dean's Professor in the Sciences of Uncertainty at the University of Massa chusetts at Amherst. His last book, the bestseller Fooled by Random- ness, has been published in twenty languages (even French). Taleblives mostly in New York. |
| Prologue On the Plumage of Birds What You Do Not Know Experts and "Empty Suits" Learning to Learn A New Kind of Ingratitude Life Is Very Unusual Plato and the Nerd Too Dull to Write About The Bottom Line Chapters Map PART ONE: UMBERTO ECO'S ANTiLIBRARY, OR HOW WE SEEK VALIDATION Chapter I : The Apprenticeship of an Empirical Skeptic Anatomy of a Black Swan On Walking Walks "Paradise" Evaporated Tbe Starred Night History and the Triplet of Opacity Nobody Knows What's Going On History Does Not Crawl, It Jumps Dear Diary: On History Running Backward Education in a Taxicab Clusters Where Is the Show? 83/4 Lbs Later The Four-Letter Word of Independence Limousine Philosopher Chapter 2: Yevgenla's Black Swan Chapter 3: The Speculator and the Prostitute The Best (Worst) Advice Beware the Scalable The Advent of Scalability Scalability and Globalization Travels Inside Mediocristan The Strange Country of Extremistan Extremistan and Knowledge Wild and Mild The Tyranny of the Accident Chapter 4: One Thousand and One Days, or How Not to Be a Sucker How to Learn from the Turkey Trained to Be Dull A Black Swan Is Relative to Knowledge A Brief History of the Black Swan Problem Sextus the (Alas) Empirical Algazel The Skeptic, Friend of Religion I Don't Want to Be a Turkey They Want to Live in Mediocristan Chapter 5: Confirmation Shmonfirmation~ Zoogles Are Not All Boogles Evidence Negative Empiricism Counting to Three Saw Another Red Mini! …… PART TWO:WE JUST CANT PREDICT PARTTHREE:THOSE GRAY SWANS OF EXTREMISTAN PART FOUR:THE END Epilogue:Yevgenia s White Swans Acknowledgments Glossary Notes Bibliography Index |
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