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| List of figures List of tables Notes on the contributors Acknowledgments Introduction MICHAEL ARTIS, ANINDYA BANERJEE AND MASSIMILIANO MARCELLINO 1 New Member States: macroeconomic outlook and forecasts EMILIO ROSSI AND ZBYSZKO TABERNACKI 1.1 The recent economic recovery in the new Member States 1.2 Inflation's temporary resurgence not yet a concern 1.3 The rush to the euro: a dose of realism 1.4 Fiscal challenges and interest rate convergence 1.5 Country overviews 1.5.1 Poland's expansion to continue beyond 2005 1.5.2 The Czech Republic to rely on external demandand investment 1.5.3 Hungary's manufacturing sector and investment are driving accelerated growth 1.5.4 Fiscal reforms place Slovakia as the most progressive country in Central Europe 1.5.5 Slovenia looks to net exports to boost growth 1.5.6 The Baltic again to set the pace for economic growth among the new Member States 1.5.7 Cyprus and Malta 2 The asymmetric impact of enlargement on old and new Member States: a general equilibrium approach MOHAMED HEDI BCHIR, LIONEL FONTAGNIE AND PAOLO ZANGHIERI 2.1 Introduction 2.2 The pre-enlargement situation 2.3 General equilibrium dimensions of enlargement 2.4 From trade liberalization to deep economic integration 2.4.1 'Trade liberalization' 2.4.2 'Market integration' 2.4.3 'Accession' 2.4.4 Comparison of dynamics across scenarios 2.5 Comparison with other studies using a similar methodology 2.6 Conclusions References 3 Changes in the spatial distribution patterns of European regional activity: the enlargements of the mid-1980s and 2004 TONI MORA, ESTHER VAY AND JORDI SURINACH 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Spatial agglomeration models: theoretical aspects and empirical evidence 3.2.1 What have we learned from spatial models? 3.2.2 What does the previous evidence of empirical spatial specialisation suggest? 3.3 Defining data and indices 3.4 Analysis of the distribution of the evolution of spatial activity, 1985 95 3.5 The effects of the new enlargement on the distribution of activity: from EU-15 to EU-27 3.6 Conclusions References 4 Forecasting macroeconomic variables for the new Member States ANINDYA BANERJEE, MASSIMILIANO MARCELLINO AND IGOR MASTEN 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Methodology 4.2.1 Forecasting models 4.2.2 Forecast comparison 4.3 The data 4.4 Forecasting results 4.4.1 The Czech Republic 4.4.2 Hungary 4.4.3 Poland 4.4.4 Slovakia 4.4.5 Slovenia 4.4.6 The role of Euro area information 4.4.7 I(2) prices, wages and money 4.5 Conclusions References 5 The cyclial experience of the new Member States 6 Demand and supply shocks in the new Member States 7 Monetary transmission in the new Member States 8 Promoting fiscal restraint in three Central European 9 Current account dynamics in the new member States 10 Challenges to banking sector stability in selected new Member States 11 Infrastructure investments as a tool for regional 12 TFP,costs and public infrastructure:an equivocal relationship 13 Regional pllicies after the EU enlargement Index |
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