| 1 Introdnctlon Section Ⅰ Data 2 Sources of Data 3 The Sampling Interval Section Ⅱ Models 4 Time Series Models 5 Probability Models Section Ⅲ Smoothing Techniques 6 Criteria 7 Exponential Smoothing 8 Choosing the Smoothing Constant Multiple Smoothing for Higher-order Polynomials 10 Analysis of Characteristics 11 Adaptive Fitting of Transcendental Functions 12 General Exponential Smoothing 13 Probability Models Section Ⅳ Forecasting 14 Lead Times 15 Forecasting with Time-Series Models 16 Variances of Coefficients and Forecasts 17 Forecasting with Probability Models 18 Special Direct Forecasts Section Ⅴ Error Measurement and Analysis 19 The Normality of Forecast Errors 20 Forecasting the Allowance for Error 21 Optimum Linear Filters Section Ⅵ Exploration of Alternatives 22 Work Sheets for Hand Computations 23 Planning the Exploration Program 24 Computer Simulation Programs Section Ⅶ Applications 25 Safety Factors |or Inventory Control 26 Rally Handicaps Appendix Index |
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