最 低 价：￥325.10
定 价：￥406.35
作 者：Kees van der Heijden 著 著
出 版 社：John Wiley & Sons
出版时间：2002-12-1
I S B N：9780470844915
| Kees van der Heijden (Scotland) is Director of the Centre for Scenario Planning and Future Studies, the Graduate School of Business at the University of Strathclyde, U.K. |
| ABOUT THE AUTHORS INTRODUCTION The Quest for a Clear Vision of the Future Unknown Variables, Uncertain Future The Significance of Scenario Thinking Developing the Sixth Sense-the Approach to Scenario Thinking How this Book is Organized 1.PREPARING FOR THE FUTURE Understanding Organizational Success Success and Failure are Inevitable Understanding success by understanding failure Explaining the Sharpbenders Research: Why Organizations Fail Maintaining Organizational Performance: Problems Sustaining Competitive Advantage-the Battle of Canon and Xerox Yahoo!-Competing in Fast-moving Markets Building a Colourful New Future Brick by Brick-the Story of Lego Success Stories Providing Customer Value-the Rise of Tetra Pak Entering New Markets and Maintaining Growth-Nokia Answers the Call Barriers to Strategic Success Lessons Learned Creating Value-The Difference Between Success and Failure Value is Created in a Domain of Scarcity Summary: Understanding the Barriers to Scenario Planning 2.HOW MANAGERS THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE Understanding Management Thinking Routines in Management Thinking Over-reliance on Routines: Success Formulas and Managerial Thinking Biases in thinking The Relevance of Framing Flaws How a Failed Product Launch Actually Boosted Sales: the Sparkle of New Coke Confirmation Bias Hindsight Bias The Problem of Overconfidence The Limitations of Judgemental Forecasting Decision Avoidance Escalation of Commitment Bolstering, Procrastination and Buck-Passing Example of a Management Team Facing a Decision Dilemma Thinking Flaws: A Synthesis Overcoming Strategic Inertia: the Potential Benefits of Scenario Planning A Scenario is not a Forecast of the Future Scenarios Focus on Key Uncertainties and Certainties About the Future Scenarios Help Identify Information to Anticipate How the Future will Unfold Typical Outcomes of the Scenario Planning Process Summary: Overcoming Thinking Flaws with Scenario Planning Summary Checklist-the Limits to Managerial Thinking 3.HOW ORGANIZATIONS THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE Flaws in Organizational Thinking Communication Difficulties Group-think in Organizations Fragmentation in Organizations Limitations Imposed by Identity Balancing Change and Constancy Overcoming the Limits of Organizational Identity: the Example of IBM Organizational Lock-in Understanding Organizational Lock-in The Consequences of Organizational Feedback Loops and Lock-in …… 4.THE IMPACT OF CULTURE AND CULTURAL ASSUMPTIONS ON STRATEGY 5.SHAPING THE FUTURE:THE EMERGENCE OF MODERN SCENARIO TECHNIQUES 6.DEVELOPING THE SKILLS FOR LONG-TERM SURVIVAL AND SUCCESS:PRINCIPLES OF THE SCENARIO PROCESS 7.SCENARIO PLANNING IN THE ORGANIZATIONAL CONTEXT 8.SCENARIO PLANNING:TAKING CHARGE OF THE FUTURE SUMMARY GLOSSARY REFERENCES INDEX |
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