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| Preface Acknowledgements Section Ⅰ Measurement: The Solution Exists Chapter 1 The Intangibles and the Challenge Chapter 2 An Intuitive Measurement Habit: Eratosthenes, Enrico & Emily How an Ancient Greek Measured the Size of the Earth Estimating: Be like Fermi Experiments: Not just for adults Notes on What to Learn from Eratosthenes, Enrico and Emily Chapter 3 The Illusion of Intangibles: Why Immeasurables Aren't The Concept of Measurement The Object of Measurement The Methods of Measurement Economic Objections to Measurement The Broader Objection to the Usefulness of & "Statistics" Ethical Objections to Measurement Toward A Universal Approach to Measurement Section Ⅱ Before You Measure Chapter 4 Clarifying the Measurement Problem Getting the Language Right: What Uncertainty and Risk Really Mean Examples of Clarification: Lessons for Business from, of all places, Government? Chapter 5 Calibrated Estimates: How Much Do You Know Now? Calibration Exercise Further Improvements on Calibration Conceptual Obstacles to Calibration The Effects of Calibration Chapter 6 Measuring Risk: Introduction to the Monte Carlo Simulation An Example for Monte Carlo and Risk Tools and other Resources for Monte Carlo Simulations The Risk Paradox Chapter 7 Measuring the Value of Information The Chance of Being Wrong and The Cost of Being Wrong: Expected Opportunity Loss The Value of Information for Ranges The Imperfect World: The Value of Partial Uncertainty Reduction The Epiphany Equation: The Value of a Measurement Changes Everything Summarizing Uncertainty, Risk and Information Value: The first measurements Section Ⅲ Measurement Methods Chapter 8 The Transition: From What Measure to How to Measure Tools of Observation: Introduction to the Instrument of Measurement Decomposition Secondary Research: Assuming You Weren't the First to Measure It The Basic Methods of Observation: If One Doesn't Work, Try the Next Measure Just Enough Consider the Error Choose and Design the Instrument Chapter 9 Sampling Reality: How Observing Some Things Tells Us about All Things Building an Intuition for Random Sampling: The Jelly Bean Example A Little About Little Samples: A Beer Brewers Approach The Easiest Sample Statistics Ever A Sample of Sampling Methods Measure to the Threshold Experiment Seeing Relationships in the Data: An Introduction to Regression Modeling Chapter 10 Bayes: Adding to What You Know Now Simple Bayesian Using Your Natural Bayesian Instinct Heterogeneous Benchmarking: A "Brand Damage" Application Getting a Bit More Technical: Bayesian Inversion for Ranges Section Ⅳ Beyond the Basics Chapter 11 Preference & Attitudes - The Softer Side of Measurement Observing Opinions, Values, and the Pursuit of Happiness: The Basics A Willingness to Pay: Measuring Value via Trade Offs Putting it all on the Line: Quantifying Risk Tolerance Quantifying Subjective Tradeoffs: Dealing with Multiple Conflicting Preferences? Keeping the Big Picture in Mind: Profit Maximization vs Subjective Tradeoffs Chapter 12 The Ultimate Measurement Instrument - Human Judges Homo Absurdus: The Weird Reasons Behind Our Decisions Getting Organized: A Performance Evaluation Example Surprisingly Simple Linear Models How to Standardize Any Evaluation: Rasch Models Removing Human Inconsistency: The Lens Model Panacea or Placebo?: Questionable Methods of Measurement Comparing the Methods Chapter 13 New Measurement Instruments for Management The 21st Century Tracker: Keeping Tabs with Technology Measuring the World: The Internet as An Instrument Prediction Markets: Wall Street Efficiency Applied to Measurements Chapter 14 A Universal Measurement Method - Applied Information Economics Bringing the Pieces Together Case: The Value of The System That Monitors Your Drinking Water Case: Forecasting Fuel for the Marine Corps Ideas for Getting Started: A Few Final Examples Summarizing the Philosophy Appendix Calibration Tests Index |
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