| 作者简介： JONATHAN GARNER is a Managing Director of Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB), Global Strategist, Global Co-ordinator of China research, and Head of Global Emerging Market Equity Strategy. Mr. Garner joined CSFB in November 2000 when the Firm merged with Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette (DLJ) where he was Head of International Equity Strategy. Prior to joining DLJ in March 2000, he worked for Robert Fleming Securities as Head of Global Emerging Market Strategy & Economics. He was a faculty member in the Economics Department of the London School of Economics for four years in the early 1990s and has worked as a consultant to the International Monetary Fund and the African Development Bank. Mr. Garner received his M.Sc. in Economics from the London School of Economics and his M.A. Hons. in Politics, Philosophy & Economics (First Class) from Oxford University. He is married with five children and lives in the United Kingdom. |
| Foreword Preface Acknowledgements Section 1: THEORY 1 Top-Down Projections of Consumption Growth in China 2 Drivrs of and Constraints to China’s Long-Run Economic Growth 3 Near-Term Risks to Consumption Arising from China’s Efforts to Combat Overheating 4 China’s Demographic Trends and Their Implications for Household Consumption 5 Social and Cultural Influences on Consumption 6 China’s Growth Potential for Key Product Categories Section 2: EVIDENCE 7 Introducing the Proprietary China Consumer Survey 8 General: Lifestyle, Income and Leverage 9 Autos 10 Beverages 11 Electronic Goods 12 Food Producers 13 Food Retail 14 Food Services 15 Household and Personal Care 16 Luxury Goods 17 Telecom Equipment 18 Tobacco 19 Transport and Travel Appendix A: PPP Convergence Model Appendix B: Global Consumption Function Appendix C: Methodology of Product Category Projection Bibliography Index |
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