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Forecasting product liability claims预测产品质量责任赔偿：流行病学及在Manvileel石棉诉讼案例中的建模

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作者：EricStallard，Kenneth G. Manton， Joel E. Cohen　著著

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出版时间：2004-8-1

I S B N：9780387949871

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Forecasting product liability claims预测产品质量责任赔偿：流行病学及在Manvileel石棉诉讼案例中的建模

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作者简介：Kenneth G. Manton, Ph.D. is Research Professor, Research Director, and Director of the Center for Demographic Studies at Duke University, and Medical Research Professor at Duke University Medical Center’s Department of Community and Family Medicine. Dr. Manton is also a Senior Fellow of the Duke University Medical Center’s Center for the Study of Aging and Human Development. His research interests include mathematical models of human aging, mortality, and chronic disease. He was the 1990 recipient of the Mindel C. Sheps Award in Mathematical Demography presented by the Population Association of America; and in 1991 he received the Allied-Signal Inc. Achievement Award in Aging administered by the Johns Hopkins Center on Aging.

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This volume presents a rigorous account of statistical forecasting efforts that led to the successful resolution of the Johns-Manville asbestos litigation. This case, taking 12 years to reach settlement, is expected to generate nearly 500,000 claims at a total nominal value of over $34 billion. The forecasting task, to project the number, timing, and nature of claims for asbestos-related injuries from a set of exposed persons of unknown size, is a general problem: the models in this volume can be adapted to forecast industry-wide asbestos liability. More generally, because the models are not overly dependent on the U.S. legal system and the role of asbestos as a dangerous/defective product, this volume will be of interest in other product liability cases, as well as similar forecasting situations for a range of insurable or compensable events. The volume stresses the iterative nature of model building and the uncertainty generated by lack of complete knowledge of the injury process. This uncertainty is balanced against the Court's need for a definitive settlement, and the volume addresses how these opposing principles can be reconciled. The volume is written for a broad audience of actuaries, biostatisticians, demographers, economists, epidemiologists, environmental health scientists, financial analysts, industrial-risk analysts, occumpational health analysts, product liability analysts, and statisticians. The modest prerequisites include basic concepts of statistics, calculus, and matrix algebra. Care is taken that readers without specialized knowledge in these areas can understand the rationale for specific applications of advanced methods. As a consequence, this volume will be an indispensable reference for all whose work involves these topics. Eric Stallard, A.S.A., M.A.A.A., is Research Professor and Associate Director of the Center for Demographic Studies at Duke University. He is a Member of the American Academy of Actuaries and an Associate of the Society of Actuaries. He serves on the American Academy of Actuaries Committees on Long Term Care and Social Insurance. He also serves on the society of Actuaries' Long Term Care Experience Committee. His research interests include modelling and forecasting for medical demography and health actuarial practice. He was the 1996 winner of the National Institute on Aging's James A. Shannon Director's Award. Kenneth G. Manton, Ph.D., is Research Professor, Research Director, and Director of the Center for Demographic Studies at Duke University and Medical Research Professor at Duke University Medical Center's Department of Community and Family Medicine. Dr. Manton is also a Senior Fellow of the Duke University Medical Center's Center for the Study of Aging and Human Development. His research interests include mathematical models of human aging, mortality, and chronic disease. He was the 1990 recipient of the Mindel C. Sheps Award in Mathematical Demography presented by the Population Association of America; and in 1991 he received the Allied-Signal Inc. Achievement Award in Aging administred by the Johns Hopkins Center on Aging. Joel E. Cohen, Ph.D., Dr. P.H., is Professor of Populations, and Head of the Laboratory of Populations, Rockefeller University. He also is Professor of Populations at Columbia University. His research interests include the demography, ecology, epidemiology, and social organization of human and non-human populations, and related mathematical concepts. In 1981, he was elected Fellow of the MacArthur and Guggenheim Foundations. He was the 1992 recipient of the Mindel C. Sheps Award in Mathematical Demography presented by the Population Association of America; and in 1994, he received the Distinguished Statistical Ecologist Award at the Sixth International Congress of Ecology.

作者简介

1 Overview
　1. 1 Introduction
　1. 2 Asbestos and Health
　1. 3 History of Asbestos
　1. 4 Epidemiological Discovery
　1. 5 Johns-Manville Corporation
　1. 6 Manville Trust
　1. 7 Manville Trust Litigation
　1. 8 Project History
　1. 9 Results
　1. 10 Organization of Monograpn
2 Epidemiology of Asbestos-Related Diseases
　2.1 Introduction
　2.2 Design Issues in Studying Occupational Exposure
　　2.2.1 Measures of Risk
2.2.2 Design Issues
　2.3 Studies of Health Risks of Occupational Exposures
2.3.1 Health Risks of a Cohort of Insulation Workers Occupationally Exposed to Asbestos
2.3.2 A Case-Control Study of Asbestos Risks in the United States and Canada
2.3.3 Short-Term Amosite Exposure Among Factory Workers in New Jersey
2.3.4 Effects of Chrysotile Exposure Among Miners and Millers in Quebec
2.3.5 Mesothelioma Risks Among World War II Shipyard Workers
2.3.6 Effects of Asbestos Exposure Among a Cohort of Retired Factory Workers
2.4 Increases in Disease Risk Associated with Exposure to Asbestos
2.5 Effects of Fiber Type on Disease Risks
2.6 Simian Virus 40 and Mesothelioma
3 Forecasts Based on Direct Estimates of Exposure
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Selikoff's Study: General Description
3.2.1 Data
3.2.2 Model and Methods
3.3 Selikoff's Six Tasks
3.3.1 Task 1: Identify the Industries and Occupations Where Asbestos Exposure Took Place
3.3.2 Task 2: Estimate the Number, Timing, and Duration of Employment of Exposed Workers
3.3.3 Task 3: Estimate Risk Differentials Among Occupations and Industries
3.3.4 Task 4: Estimate Dose-Response Models for Cancer Risks
3.3.5 Task 5: Project Future Asbestos-Related Cancer Mortality
3.3.6 Task 6: Estimate and Project Deaths Due to Asbestosis
3.4 Sensitivity of Selikoff's Projections
3.5 Alternative Projections of Health Implications
4 Forecasts Based on Indirect Estimates of Exposure
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Background
4.3 Walker's Study: General Description
4.3.1 Data
4.3.2 Model and Methods
4.4 Walker's Five Tasks
4.4.1 Task 1: Determine the Eitective Number of Past Asbestos Workers
4.4.2 Task 2: Project Mesothelioma Incidence
4.4.3 Task 3: Project Lung Cancer Incidence
4.4.4 Task 4: Estimate Current and Future Asbestosis Prevalence
4.4.5 Task 5: Estimate the Amount of Asbestos-Related Disease Likely to Occur in Women
4.5 Asbestos-Related Disease Projections by Other Authors
4.6 Conclusions
5 Uncertainty in Forecasts Based on Indirect Estimates
6 Updated Forecasts Based on Indirect Estimates of Exposure
7 Uncertainty in Updated Forecasts
8 Forecasts Based on a Hybrid Model
9 Uncertainty in Forecasts Based on a Hybrid Model
10 Conclusions and Implications
References
Index